The Impacts of climate change and Variability on agricultural output of Ethiopia: Panel Data Analysis

Tasfaye Fikadu


The study assesses the economic agricultural impacts of climate change and variability in Ethiopia using panel data with respect to 9 regions and Diredawa city administration from 1995-2010. The analysis was based up on data surveyed on agriculture by CSA each year and climate variables from National Meteorological Agency. Of these agricultural outputs, the study utilized 44 types of crops in value as dependent variable and independent variables: agricultural labor force, 8 major livestocks (aggregated by TLU), pesticides, fertilizer, irrigation area, improved seed and rainfall and temperature as proxy for climate variables. The study is aimed at analyzing the impacts of climate change/variability (with little bit focus on identifying which is occurring in Ethiopia) on agricultural output. For this, two main themes are posed: does agriculture in Ethiopia more elastic to annual climate variables or seasonal, of seasons to which season? Is climate variability or/and  change that is/are happening? What is its impact?

Descriptive result of the analysis shows that there is inter-annual, inter-seasonal and inter-regional rainfall variability whereas inter-regional temperature variation categorizes regions of Ethiopia in to two those with more than 200C and below it and high variation between the two for the study period.

Annual data result shows that both 10C and 1mm increment in temperature and rainfall increases agricultural output. But, it is elastic to temperature than rainfall. Altogether, agriculture is more elastic to climate variables than modern purchased inputs and traditional inputs. For seasonal data, results are similar to annual except for meher season temperature. Belg season rainfall and temperature and meher season rainfall positively affects agricultural output till determined level of rainfall and temperature. However, meher season temperature has negative impacts on agricultural output. Seasonally, it is more elastic to temperature than rainfall. Taken together, it is more elastic to annual than seasonal variables. These finding highlights the need for considering difference of variability of climate variables across regions and seasons for providing temperature and rainfall tolerant improved seed for different region of Ethiopia, in undertaking irrigation and any adaptation to climate change/variability or mitigation strategies.



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

ISSN : 2251-1555